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Long-Term Forecasting  

Included in the ECCO International "Tool-Kit" are comprehensive market analysis tools which will allow ECCO to assist a CAISO Market Participant conduct the following long-term assessment of:

  • CRR (Congestion Revenue Rights) strategic evaluation and analysis
  • Market price forecasting
  • Congestion forecasting
  • Transmission flow forecasting
  • Generation plant revenue and profit forecasting, investment evaluation
  • Generator bid strategy evaluation
  • Integrated Plant Expansion plan, where multiple plant expansion options are considered, automatically selecting the best set of options via dynamic programming
  • Loss factor forecasting

ECCO International uses a time-tested and market-proven suite of software to conduct these studies. 2-4-C (To Foresee) has been successfully used globally by ISOs, generators, regulators and retailers as a market analysis and forecasting tool, especially for long term applications.

The major strength of 2-4-C's is the precision of the model which ensures consistency of results between studies and this precision has been proven over again in many market study audit situations, where the results of 2-4-C's have been independently checked. This precision and consistency is a result of 2-4-C using a nodal configuration which optimizes network flows (and constraints) with dynamically calculated limits; Monte-Carlo based plant outage consideration; LP-based optimization; and discrete ½-hourly modeling. The major blocks of 2-4-C are shown below.

2-4-C may also be used to perform sensitivity studies of different plant expansion options, fuel price scenarios, load forecasts and transmission expansion options. These sensitivity studies may be used in investment risk analysis and evaluation.

2-4-C is designed to assist you in understanding the complexities of a competitive electricity market. The many features incorporated into the standard design of 2-4-C makes it, we believe, the best value-for money available today. The strengths of 2-4-C stem from the following four key attributes:

  • Precision:
    A nodal configuration which optimizes network flows (and constraints) with dynamically calculated limits; Monte-Carlo based plant outage consideration; LP-based optimization; and discrete ½-hourly modeling. This precision will be of considerable benefit in the delivery of forecasts relevant to your assets. Forecasts can focus on averages, or volatilities.
  • Speed:
    A distinct Preview Mode of operation is incorporated. The Preview Mode disregards intra-regional constraints. You will quickly be able to zero-in on those areas that require more detailed investigation. Each Mode is suited to a different set of market assumptions and information requirements.
  • Versatility:
    It uses a robust ODBC database storage mechanism for all input data, and output data created. The algorithm that has been developed is applicable under different market conditions. You can apply 2-4-C to the delivery of forecasts under a wide range of different market assumptions and scenarios.
  • Simplicity:
    An intuitive Graphic User Interface (GUI) by which to operate 2-4-C is provided. The Report Preparation Element operates seamlessly with Excel with a wide range of reports that are supported and more can be easily configured.. With the reporting capability and standard format, a wide range of your staff will be able to derive considerable benefit from, 2-4-C.

For more information about how ECCO International can put 2-4-C to work for you contact us at: info@eccointl.com or call 415-794-8740 and we'll be happy to provide you additional information.

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